OEM backlog · Aircraft values · Lease rates · 20-year outlook · Commercial Aircraft · Biz jets · Defense
| OEM | Sector | Backlog | 2025 Deliveries | Q1 2026 Del. | Backlog Years |
|---|
| Type | Family | YOM | Age | Low USD M | Mid USD M | High USD M | Source |
|---|
| # | Lessor | Total Fleet | Owned | Managed | Avg Age | Util. | Primary Type · HQ |
|---|
| OEM | Model | Segment | Backlog | 2024 Del. | List Price USD M |
|---|
Platform data sourced from Lockheed Martin & Northrop Grumman public investor relations. Unit counts approximate.
| Prime | Program | Category | Program Backlog | Annual Rate | Defense Backlog USD bn |
|---|
Source: IBA Insight — Regional Aircraft Market Update, June 2026. Storage = % inactive of total fleet.
| Type | ASK/AC (M) | vs May25 |
|---|
| Type | Gen | Age | Market Value Trend | Lease Rate Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATR 42-600 | New | 0yr | ▲ Improving | ▲ Improving |
| ATR 72-600 | New | 0yr | ▲ Improving | ▲ Improving |
| A220-300 | New | 0yr | → Stable | ▲ Improving |
| E175-E1 | New | 0yr | → Stable | → Stable |
| E190-E2 / E195-E2 | New | 0yr | ▲ Improving | ▲ Improving |
| ATR 72-500 | Old | 15yr | → Stable | → Stable |
| CRJ-900LR | Old | 15yr | ▲ Improving | → Stable |
| CRJ-700ER | Old | 15yr | → Stable | → Stable |
| E190-E1 | Old | 15yr | ▲ Improving | ▲ Improving |
| DHC8-400Q | Old | 15yr | ▲ Improving | ▲ Strong |
| Segment | 2024 (Actual) | 2030 Forecast | △ vs 2024 | 2040 Forecast | △ vs 2030 |
|---|
New category. Aerial firefighting is the flagship sub-segment amid a structural supply gap. Sources: Mordor / Fortune / MRFR (market size), French Parliamentary Report Jul 2025, De Havilland (Mar 2026), Positive Aviation & Kepplair decks, IBA / Avitas. As of Jul 2026.
| Segment | Share | Typical platforms |
|---|---|---|
| ISR / surveillance | 45% | King Air, Global, ATR, jets |
| Maritime patrol | 30% | ATR 72 MPA, Dash-8, P-8 |
| Search & rescue (SAR) | 25% | Helos, CN-235, C-295 |
CAGR ~6.5-9% -> $27-40B by 2031-35. Adjacent: air ambulance / HEMS ~$14-23B (2026), rotary ~77%.
| Market | Aircraft | Note |
|---|---|---|
| EU (rescEU) | 145 | Funded, urgent |
| Canada | ~60 | Fleet renewal |
| Canadair operators (repl.+growth) | 250 | Over 20 yr |
| Emerging (S.Am / Africa / SE Asia) | 100+ | Fastest-growing |
| USA | catalyst | Bridger ordered 10 FF72; doctrine shift |
| Total | ~400+ | ~€16B (converted ATR72) |
| Asset | Acquisition | Operating | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadair CL-415 (baseline) | $26-31M | High (aging fleet) | 6,137 L scoop |
| DC-10 VLAT | — | ~$22-26.5k/flt-hr + ~$65k/drop | ~35,600 L |
| Heavy air tanker (LAT) | — | ~$12k/drop + flight time | ~11,000 L |
| Positive Aviation FF72 | ~1/2 of Canadair | ~60% lower vs Canadair | 8 t scoop / 10 t tanker |
| Kepplair KE72 | <€35M | -30% opex; break-even 8-10 A/C | 7,500 L multirole |
| Programme | Base | MTOW | Capacity | EIS | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Havilland DHC-515 | Clean-sheet (CL-415 successor) | 21.3 t | ~7,000 L | 2028 | Assembly started Mar 2026; 22 ordered |
| Positive Aviation FF72 | ATR 72-600 | ~16-23 t | 8 t scoop / 10 t tanker | ~2028 | First flight 2026; Bridger 10 |
| Kepplair KE72 | ATR 72 | ~23 t | 7,500 L multirole | 2026/27 | French MoI / EESC; ATR-backed |
| Hynaero Fregate | Clean-sheet (FR) | 36 t | ~10,000 L | ~2030 | High funding / cert risk |
| Roadfour Seagle | Clean-sheet | 32 t | — | ~2030+ | Early stage |
| AG600 / Be-200 | China / Russia | 53.5 / 43 t | 12 t | In svc (ltd) | Geopolitical + opex constraints |
Source: IBA Seminar 20 May 2026 · Ishka Airfinance Webinar 9 Jun 2026. CTK = cargo tonne-kilometres.
| Aircraft | Manufacturer | Type | Backlog | EIS | Key Customer | Notes |
|---|
Indicative values based on IBA/AVAC composite and comparable listings. Not a formal appraisal.
* Indicative only. Values adjust for age based on IBA/AVAC depreciation curves. For a formal appraisal contact an ISTAT-certified appraiser. Lease rates are mid-market monthly rates.
SAF pricing, carbon compliance costs, EU ETS & CORSIA exposure. Sources: Ishka SAVi / Ishka Airfinance (EU/UK ETS), IBA NetZero, General Index, EASA 2025 production cost estimates. Data: Jul 2026.
SAF re-rated +12.8% MoM even as conventional jet softened (Jet crack vs Brent −$20/bbl as Hormuz stress unwound) — the green premium did the work, widening +$585/t to a series-record $1,748/t. The SAF/HVO Class II spread flipped from −$270 to +$71/t, the textbook signal for HEFA refiners to reallocate capacity back to SAF; EU anti-dumping limits on Asian HVO keep the flip partial. Curve bear-flattened (M1−M12 backwardation collapsed to $197/t), signalling prompt scarcity easing while the back end holds SAF structurally tight. Trader read: SAF cost exposure is now higher but lower-volatility — model flat price around $3,000/t, premium around $1,750/t.
ETS compliance is now the third- or fourth-largest operating cost for many airlines, behind fuel and labour. The 2023 aviation reform phases out free EU allowances (EUAs) entirely: from the 2026 emissions year (surrendered by 30 Apr 2027) carriers must pay for virtually every tonne of intra-EEA CO₂ — 1 EUA = 1 tonne CO₂e. On 17 July 2026 the European Commission is due to propose an ETS revision; ending the 2012 "stop-the-clock" limit to intra-EEA flights would extend the scheme to all departures from EEA airports, sharply raising costs for emissions-intensive long-haul services and, for the first time, charging non-EU carriers for flights leaving Europe. The UK ETS (2021) is also phasing out free allocation; the Swiss ETS — linked to the EU system, allowances transferable — is likely to follow any expansion, while the UK shows no move to unilateral alignment yet.
Costs shown use average auction prices, not prices actually paid — airlines mitigate via hedging/spot purchases, route-based exemptions (EU outermost regions in France, Spain, Portugal) and SAF support under FEETS. Example: Icelandair's 2024 modelled exposure of €20.3m ($23m) vs $20.2m disclosed (incl. UK + Swiss ETS). Trading read: from 2027 ETS becomes a fully variable, un-buffered cost that rewards fuel efficiency, SAF uptake and fleet renewal — and adds residual-value risk to older, thirstier types, especially on long-haul.
| Technology | Status | Price Range ($/t) | vs Jet-A (x) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conventional Jet-A (CAF) | Baseline | ~$650–700/t | 1.0× | Global spot; GX Jet CIF NWE / FOB Arab Gulf / Singapore |
| HEFA-SPK SAF | Active market | ~$2,225–2,275/t | ~2.6× | Hydroprocessed esters; GX SAF HEFA Neat FOB NWE Barges. Premium ~$1,575/t over Jet |
| ATJ / Alcohol-to-Jet SAF | Emerging | $2,000–3,500/t | ~3–5× | Ethanol & isobutanol feedstocks; limited commercial scale |
| Nuclear-H₂ Synthetic SAF | In development | $5,500–6,700/t | ~8–10× | EASA 2025 production cost estimate; long-term pathway |
| e-SAF / Power-to-Liquid | In development | $7,600–10,800/t | ~11–16× | Green hydrogen electrolysis; EASA 2025 production cost est. Largest policy push |
| EU ETS (CO₂ credit) | Carbon market | ~$91/t CO₂e | — | European Emissions Trading System; free allowances reach zero 2026; intra-EEA flights |
| UK ETS | Carbon market | ~$78/t CO₂e | — | UK Emissions Trading System post-Brexit; separate from EU ETS |
| CORSIA Phase 1 | Low cost | ~$9/t CO₂e | — | ICAO global offsetting scheme; 120 participating states 2026; 85% of 2019 baseline |
| Airline | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryanair | 11% | 13% | 16% | 20% | 78% ETS intra-EEA; high volume exposure |
| Wizz Air | — | — | 12% | 19% | 63% ETS intra-EEA; 15% under ETS expansion scope |
| airBaltic | 11% | 12% | 10% | 22% | High share intra-EEA; SAF mandate cost rising sharply |
| Aegean Airlines | 7% | 11% | 13% | 18% | 81% ETS intra-EEA; Greek network exposure |
| Air France-KLM | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | Lower % due to large long-haul (non-ETS) base |
| IAG (BA/Iberia) | — | — | 5% | 8% | Mixed exposure; UK ETS + EU ETS post-Brexit |
| Airline | Jet-A ($bn) | SAF ($bn) | ETS ($bn) | ETS Expansion ($bn) | Total ($bn) | vs 2025 Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lufthansa Group | 8.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | ~$13.1bn | +52% |
| easyJet | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | ~$4.3bn | +73% |
| Air China | 7.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | ~$9.6bn | +27% |
| Emirates | 9.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | ~$11bn | +17% |
| American Airlines | 9.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ~$10.5bn | +8% |
Aircraft coming off lease in the next 6–24 months. Source: Ishka Remarketing Tracker, lessor Q1 2026 IR disclosures. Q1 2026 — 229 units tracked.
| Type | Units | Lessor | Region | Window | Avg Age | Status |
|---|
Median days from listing to signed LOI/MOU by aircraft type. Transaction volume and bid-ask spread. Q1 2026. Source: ACC Aviation Market Report, Ishka Deal Monitor.
| Type | Market Temp | Median Days | IQR Range | 2025 Volume | Bid-Ask Spread |
|---|
Net buyer/seller status, acquisition and disposal activity, orderbook pipeline. LTM Q1 2026. Source: AerCap, Avolon, ACG, Ishka Lessor Monitor.
| Lessor | Net Position | Acquired | Disposed | Fleet | Orderbook | Lead Type | Intelligence Note |
|---|
Week ending 12 Jun 2026 · Source: IATA Fuel Monitor · S&P Global Energy Platts
| Region | Share | cts/gal | $/bbl | $/t | Index | vs Wk | vs Mo | vs Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌐 Global | 100% | 330.62 | 138.86 | 1,096.57 | 379.6 | −5.1% | −11.9% | +54.2% |
| Asia & Oceania | 22% | 331.18 | 139.09 | 1,098.85 | 397.4 | −1.9% | −9.4% | +60.2% |
| Europe & CIS | 28% | 334.01 | 140.28 | 1,106.85 | 378.0 | −5.4% | −13.4% | +54.0% |
| Middle East | 5% | 319.57 | 134.22 | 1,060.33 | 400.8 | −2.7% | −11.2% | +60.0% |
| North America | 39% | 327.20 | 137.42 | 1,085.64 | 365.3 | −7.0% | −12.5% | +50.0% |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 4% | 345.85 | 145.26 | 1,147.53 | 402.4 | −3.9% | −9.9% | +56.6% |
| Africa* | 2% | 341.78 | 143.55 | 1,133.12 | 142.1 | −4.1% | −13.0% | +59.3% |
| Oil Price (Dated Brent) | 94.11 | — | — | −5.1% | −12.5% | +36.2% | ||
| Crack Spread | 44.75 | — | — | −5.0% | −10.0% | +112.7% | ||
*Africa index launched 2 Jan 2025; indexed to 2024 annual average value.
| Week ending | Index Value (2000=100) | Weekly Avg $/bbl | Change vs prior week | Crack Spread $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2026 | 379.6 | 138.86 | −5.1% | 44.75 |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 399.8 | 146.25 | +3.3% | 47.12 |
| 29 May 2026 | 387.2 | 141.64 | −11.4% | 41.30 |
| 22 May 2026 | 437.0 | 159.85 | −1.7% | 48.18 |
| 15 May 2026 | 444.3 | 162.55 | −0.2% | 52.74 |
Advanced air mobility programmes, certification status and operating economics. Data: Jun 2026.
| Company | Aircraft | Status (2026) | Key backers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joby Aviation (US) NYSE: JOBY · Cash ~$2.5B | S4 | ~85% FAA type cert; conforming a/c flying; Dubai launch 2026 | Strategic: Toyota $894M (15.3% stake, largest shareholder) · Delta Air Lines up to $200M (equity+warrants) · Uber (acquired Elevate 2020) Sovereign: QIA (Qatar SWF) · US DoD $131M+ (AFWERX contracts) Total raised ~$3.8B+ · Q1 2026 raise ~$1.2B (equity + converts) |
| Archer Aviation (US) NASDAQ: ACHR · Cash ~$2B | Midnight | 100% FAA Means of Compliance accepted; targeting late 2026; ~1,200 units / $6B order book (UAE 475, USA 300, India 200, Korean Air 100, Japan/Soracle 100+) | Strategic: Stellantis (mfg partner) · United Airlines · Korean Air · IndiGo · ADA (UAE) Financial: BlackRock led $301.75M (Feb 2025) · $850M institutional raise (Jun 2025) Total raised ~$1.9B · SoftBank: unconfirmed, not in SEC filings |
| Beta Technologies (US) NYSE: BETA · IPO Nov 2025 ~$7.4B | ALIA CX300 / A250 | CX300 delivered (Bristow); FAA cert late 2026/early 2027; IPO Nov 2025 | Sovereign: QIA (Qatar SWF, led $318M Series C, Oct 2024) Strategic: GE Aerospace $300M (Sep 2025, cornerstone IPO investor) Financial: TPG Rise Climate (led $375M Series B) · US-EXIM $213M guarantee Total raised ~$1.73B pre-IPO + ~$1B IPO proceeds |
| Vertical Aerospace (UK) NYSE: VTL · ~$585M raised | VX4 | Piloted untethered flight (MSN2); recapitalised $800M+; UK CAA engaged | Financial: Mudrick Capital ~71% post-recap ($130M notes converted + $50M cash) Strategic: American Airlines $25M equity + pre-orders · Virgin Atlantic pre-orders Tech partners: Rolls-Royce · Honeywell Jan 2025 $90M public offering (William Blair-led) |
| EHang (China) NASDAQ: EH · Revenue-positive | EH216-S | Full CAAC stack (TC+PC+AC+AOC); autonomous passenger ops live | Publicly traded; no major Western strategic backer. CEO Hu Huazhi ~31.5% insider stake. Lee Soo Man (K-pop exec) $23M (Jul 2023) · UAE institution $22M+ (Nov 2024) ~$100M financing 2024; self-sustaining via CAAC-licensed commercial ops |
| Eve Air Mobility (Brazil) NYSE: EVEX · Cash $441M Q1 2026 | Eve eVTOL | Prototype flight testing; ANAC/FAA cert & EIS slipped to 2028; largest order book | Parent: Embraer 71.92% stake (diluted from 81.9% via $230M raise Sep 2025) Sovereign: BNDES (Brazil dev bank) >$240M (4 tranches 2023–25) · US-EXIM guarantee (Jan 2026) Debt: $150M syndicated loan Jan 2026 (Itaú, Banco do Brasil, Citi, MUFG) |
| Aura Aero (France) Private · Toulouse · ~€340M composite | ERA (hybrid) | €340M funding Apr 2026; 20 firm + 700 LOI; EIS late 2027; parallel EASA cert path | Strategic: EDF Group (lead equity investor) · Safran Corporate Ventures Sovereign/Public: Bpifrance · France 2030 programme · EIC Fund (EU) · Florida state (US plant) Note: €50M equity + €120M French grants + €170M US public support = €340M total headline |
| Heart Aerospace (Sweden/US) Private · LA HQ from Apr 2025 · ~$185M raised | ES-30 (hybrid) | 30-seat hybrid-electric; $185M raised; EIS 2028+; Air Canada strategic partner | Financial: Breakthrough Energy Ventures (Bill Gates fund, Series A lead) Strategic: Air Canada $5M equity + 30-aircraft order · United Airlines Ventures · Mesa Air Group · Saab $5M Public: EIC Fund (EU, led Series B $107M Feb 2024) |
| Lilium / Volocopter Both insolvent — no operational successor | Jet / VoloCity | Lilium insolvent Oct 2024; new entity collapsed Feb 2025; Archer bought patents €18M. Volocopter: Wanfeng/Diamond asset purchase €10M (Mar 2025); pivoting to VoloXPro ultralights | Old Lilium (~€1.5B raised): Tencent (>€264M) · Atomico · Baillie Gifford · NEOM · Ferrovial · Palantir — collapsed after Germany blocked €50M KfW guarantee Old Volocopter (~$726M raised): NEOM $175M · BlackRock · Geely · Daimler · Atlantia · Continental — Wanfeng €10M post-insolvency asset buy (not a rescue) |
Only two firms hold full type+production+operating certs — both Chinese (EHang passenger, AutoFlight cargo). The Western leaders (Joby, Archer, Beta) are paired with strategic OEM/sovereign capital; most European pure-plays have failed or pivoted. Sources: eVTOL.news, Certification Tracker.
| Company | Cash / raised | Key investors & rounds | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| eVTOL / air taxi | |||
| Archer (US) | ~$1.96B liquidity | Stellantis (mfg), United Airlines orders, equity raises | Largest cash pile; cert late 2026 |
| Joby (US) | ~$1.4B cash | Toyota ($894M+), Uber, Delta, Qatar Investment Authority, US DoD | ~85% FAA cert; Dubai launch 2026 |
| Beta (US) | ~$1.7B; IPO ~$1B (val ~$7.4B) | Series C $318M (QIA), GE Aerospace $300M (hybrid), Fidelity | Public 2025; CTOL + cargo diversified |
| Vertical (UK) | $800M package + $180M | Mudrick Capital Management | Recapitalised; UK leader |
| EHang (CN) | Public (NASDAQ: EH); revenue | Public markets + commercial operations | Only full CAAC cert; ops live |
| Eve Air Mobility (BR) | ~$392.5M (funded to 2028) | Embraer (parent), BNDES/US-EXIM financing letters, $230M raise | 100 firm + ~2,800 LOIs (~$14B); EIS 2028 |
| Lilium / Volocopter | Distressed | Volocopter rescued by Wanfeng | Lilium insolvent (2025) |
| Hybrid-electric / regional | |||
| Aura Aero ERA (FR) | €340M ($393M) Apr 2026 + €50M Series-B ext | EDF + private; 20 firm orders + 700 LOI | ERA EIS late 2027 |
| Electra EL9 (US) | USAF partnership up to $85M + private | US Air Force, private; 2,100+ orders (~$8B) | Flight 2027, cert 2029 |
| Heart Aerospace ES-30 (SE) | ~$145M raised | United Airlines, Mesa, Breakthrough Energy, BNV | 230+ commitments; EIS 2029 |
| ZeroAvia (US/UK) | $250M+; runway extended ~2 yrs | Airbus, Barclays, NEOM, Amazon Climate Pledge Fund | H₂-electric retrofit (20-seat) |
| Eviation Alice (US) | Backed by Clermont Group | Clermont Group (Singapore) | All-electric; EIS late decade |
Figures from company filings/press (2025–26); cash positions are end-2025 and move with quarterly burn. The well-capitalised cluster (Archer, Beta, Joby — each >$1.4B) is pulling away; European pure-plays have largely failed (Lilium) or pivoted (Volocopter). Sources: Robb Report (Beta IPO), Vertical $800M, Aviation Week (Aura Aero), ZeroAvia.
Runway = year-end-2025 cash ÷ estimated annual cash burn (Joby/Archer/Beta burn ~$0.45–0.6B/yr; Eve guides funding "through 2028", Vertical recapitalised ~2yr). Burn typically rises into certification, so runways shorten without new raises. Order backlogs are dominated by non-binding LOIs — Eve carries the largest book (~2,800 / ~$14B) but only ~100 firm; Beta reports 891 aircraft / $3.5B (289 firm + 602 options); Joby's largest single deal is ~200 aircraft / ~$1B (Saudia/Abdul Latif Jameel). Archer carries ~$6B across ~1,200 units from 7+ airline partners — UAE 475, USA 300, India/IndiGo 200, Korean Air 100, Japan/Soracle 100+ (Korean Air order Nov 2025). EHang is the only firm converting backlog to revenue today. Sources: Motley Fool (cash), Eve FY2025, Beta 10-K ($3.5B backlog), Joby $1B Saudia order.
| Programme | Type | Range / seats | Cost note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aura Aero ERA (FR) | Hybrid-electric | 900 NM · 19 seat · STOL 2,400 ft | 8× Safran ENGINeUS + 2 SAF turbo-gens; ~80% CO₂ cut; 20 firm + 700 LOI; proto end-2026, flight 2027 |
| Electra EL9 (US) | Hybrid-electric eSTOL | 330 NM (9 pax) / 1,100 NM ferry · 150 ft takeoff | Blown-lift + 8 distributed motors + turbine gen; 2,100+ orders (~$8B); flight 2027, cert 2029 (Part 23) |
| Heart Aerospace ES-30 | Hybrid-electric | 200 km electric / 400 km hybrid · 30 seat | Reserve combustion extends range & cuts battery size |
| Eviation Alice | All-electric | ~250 nm · 9 seat / freight | ~$200/FH; ~$0.15/mile freight |
| ZeroAvia | Hydrogen-electric | Retrofit 20-seat (scaling) | Fuel-cell powertrain; H₂ supply is the cost variable |
| Pipistrel Velis Electro | All-electric | ~50 min · 2 seat (trainer) | Only EASA type-certified electric a/c; very low energy cost |
Maintenance: electric powertrains have far fewer rotating/wear components and no combustion, cutting routine line maintenance — but battery health, cycle life and replacement become the dominant lifecycle cost, and certification of battery MX is still maturing. Flying cost: energy is cheap (electricity vs jet fuel), so economics favour short regional/commuter and training missions; battery weight caps range. Sources: Heart Aerospace, ScienceDirect (cost-effectiveness), EV Magazine.
Directional outlook by aircraft type. Current monthly lease rates anchored to market data; 1/3/5-yr arrows are scenario projections. Sources: IBA, Cirium/Ascend, SMBC, Aircraft Value News (2026).
| Aircraft | Mkt value (now) | Lease $/mo | 1-yr | 3-yr | 5-yr | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New-generation narrowbody | ||||||
| A321neo | ~$60–65M | ~$460k | ↑ | ↑ | → | Best range/economics; deepest backlog; holds value |
| A321XLR | ~$70M | ~$480k | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | New long-range NB; scarce, premium asset |
| A320neo | ~$50–55M | ~$400k | ↑ | → | ↓ | Firm now; softens as neo output ramps |
| 737 MAX 8 | ~$50–55M | ~$305–410k | ↑ | ↑ | → | Output recovering; strong demand once rate stabilises |
| 737 MAX 10 | ~$55–60M | ~$400k | ↑ | ↑ | → | Large backlog; awaiting cert/production ramp |
| A220-300 | ~$38–45M | ~$230–290k | → | ↑ | ↑ | Order momentum (AirAsia 150); strong long-term |
| Widebody | ||||||
| A350-1000 | ~$180M | ~$0.9–1.3M | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | Very tight; few large-twin alternatives |
| A350-900 | ~$150–165M | ~$1.14M | ↑ | ↑ | → | Tight supply; long-haul recovery |
| 787-9 | ~$145–160M | ~$1.05M | ↑ | ↑ | → | Slow ramp vs backlog keeps rates firm |
| 787-10 | ~$160M | ~$1.1M | ↑ | ↑ | → | Dense long-haul; firm demand |
| A330-900neo | ~$105–130M | ~$0.65–0.8M | ↑ | ↑ | → | Value widebody; improving placement |
| 777-300ER (used) | ~$25–55M | ~$0.4–0.7M | ↑ | ↑ | → | Bridging the widebody gap; extensions common |
| Freighters | ||||||
| 777F | ~$185–195M | ~$1.4–1.7M | ↑ | ↑ | → | Cargo demand; limited new-build (production sunset) |
| 767-300BCF / A330P2F | ~$20–55M | ~$0.3–0.5M | → | → | ↓ | E-commerce driven; conversion supply rising |
| Regional jets | ||||||
| E195-E2 | ~$35–45M | ~$200–300k | → | ↑ | ↑ | US breakthrough (Avelo/SAS); orders surging |
| E190-E2 | ~$32–40M | ~$190–260k | → | ↑ | → | Steady scope-friendly demand |
| E175 (E1) | ~$25–30M | ~$180–230k | → | → | ↓ | US regional workhorse; mature, scope-locked |
| Turboprops | ||||||
| ATR 72-600 | ~$22–26M | ~$130–190k | → | → | → | Thin-route niche; limited competition |
| ATR 42-600 | ~$18–22M | ~$110–150k | → | → | → | Small-community / island niche |
| Q400 (used) | ~$10–16M | ~$110–160k | → | → | ↓ | Out of production; higher trip cost than ATR |
| Current-generation (used, ~15 yr) | ||||||
| A320ceo | ~$10–15M | ~$150–200k | ↑ | → | ↓↓ | Shortage-propped; corrects hardest when output normalises |
| 737-800 | ~$12–16M | ~$160–230k | ↑ | → | ↓↓ | Shallowing depreciation now; downside on normalisation |
| A330-300ceo | ~$25–40M | ~$0.25–0.4M | → | → | ↓ | Cheap interim widebody lift; ages out |
Thesis: a structural supply shortage — OEM production running below target (A320neo, 737 MAX), engine-reliability groundings, and MRO bottlenecks — is lifting both values and lease rates across the fleet in 2026. Depreciation curves are flattening: IBA marked a 15-yr 737-800 half-life base value up ~13% now, with forecast value up ~27% by 2031 and ~58% by 2036. The 1–3 year view is firmly up, strongest for the A321neo and large twins (A350-1000, 777-300ER) where backlogs are deepest. The key 5-year risk is to the downside: as Airbus/Boeing ramp delivery rates back to plan, undersupply eases and market values can correct toward base value — fastest for older current-generation metal (A320ceo/737-800) that is currently propped up by scarcity. New-generation types hold value best (end-of-life base values for A320neo/737 MAX now exceed ~$22–23M). Arrows are directional scenarios, not point forecasts. Sources: IBA base-value updates, SMBC push/pull 2026, Aircraft Value News outlook 2026.
Airframe heavy-maintenance charge-out rates ($/man-hour). Base: Team SAI via FlightGlobal · 2026 indicative escalated ~4.5%/yr, cross-checked vs Oliver Wyman 2025/26 MRO forecast (labour +5.5–6%/yr; engine labour +6.4% NA / +7.4% EU / +8.3% RoW).
| Region | Base (Team SAI) | 2026 indicative | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Europe | $80 | ~$135–145 | Highest; capacity tight |
| Eastern Europe | $50 | ~$70–85 | Poland/Czech/Hungary absorb W.EU overflow; labour brain-drain risk |
| North America | $55 | ~$90–100 | Mechanic shortage (~18k short) |
| Asia-Pacific | $49 | ~$80–90 | Singapore top of range |
| China | $45 | ~$70–80 | Gap to West narrowing |
| Latin America | $41 | ~$65–75 | El Salvador/Brazil hubs |
| Africa | ~$30 | ~$45–60 | Lowest labour; total cost high (parts/logistics) |
Indicative only — actual quotes vary by check type, aircraft, turn time and contract. Heavy D-checks run 40,000–60,000 man-hours ($3–7M). The regional gap is closing as rising Asian local demand fills shops and ferry-fuel cost erodes the case for sending narrowbodies abroad. Africa note: labour rates are the lowest globally, but total maintenance cost often runs above the global average due to parts-import duties, logistics and aircraft ferrying — hubs: Ethiopian (Addis), SAA Technical (Johannesburg), Royal Air Maroc (Casablanca), EgyptAir, Kenya Airways. Sources: FlightGlobal/Team SAI, Oliver Wyman, Mordor (Africa MRO).
| Cost item | Regional Jet (E-Jet) | Turboprop (ATR/Q400) | Narrowbody (737/A320) | Widebody (777/787/A350) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scheduled checks | ||||
| A-check (~400–600 FH) | ~$10–30k | ~$8–25k | ~$10–50k | ~$50–150k |
| C-check (~18–24 mo) | ~$0.3–0.8M | ~$0.2–0.5M | ~$0.3–1M | ~$1–2M |
| D-check (heavy, 6–10 yr) | ~$1–2.5M | ~$0.8–1.8M | ~$2–4M | ~$5–10M |
| Major components (per event) | ||||
| Engine shop visit (per engine) | ~$2–3.5M | ~$0.6–1.2M | ~$3–5M | ~$4–6M+ |
| Propeller overhaul (per prop) | — | ~$30–80k | — | — |
| Landing gear overhaul (shipset) | ~$0.4–0.9M | ~$0.3–0.7M | ~$0.5–1.2M | ~$1.5–3M |
| APU overhaul | ~$0.2–0.5M | ~$0.15–0.4M | ~$0.3–0.7M | ~$0.5–1M |
| Full repaint | ~$40–100k | ~$30–80k | ~$50–150k | ~$200–500k |
| Recurring / operational | ||||
| 📋 CAMO (per a/c / month) | ~$1.5–4k | ~$1.5–4k | ~$2–6k | ~$3–8k |
| 🔬 Engine borescope (BSI) (per eng/event) | ~$4–10k | ~$3–8k | ~$5–15k | ~$8–20k |
| 🔧 Line maintenance ($/FH) | ~$50–120 | ~$40–100 | ~$60–150 | ~$120–300 |
| 🛑 AOG (per hour, lost rev + recovery) | ~$5–50k | ~$3–30k | ~$10–150k | ~$20–250k |
| ♻ Part-out / teardown (disassembly) | ~$150–350k | ~$100–300k | ~$200–500k | ~$400–800k |
| Total maintenance $/FH (all-in) | ~$700–1,200 | ~$500–900 | ~$1,000–1,800 | ~$1,800–2,500 |
Maintenance is the second-largest operating cost after fuel; an A320 from zero- to full-life maintenance status exceeds ~$11M. Engines: CF34/PW1900G (E-Jet) ~$2–3.5M, AE3007 (ERJ) ~$1–2M, PW127 (ATR) ~$0.6–1.2M, PW150A (Q400) ~$0.8–1.5M per shop visit. Turboprops have cheaper checks and burn less fuel but add propeller overhauls; regional jets cost more per FH but fly longer sectors. CAMO is EASA-mandatory for EU commercial. AOG figures are lost-revenue + recovery (AOG tech premium ~$150–300/MH). USM from part-out is ~40–60% cheaper than new and can exceed an aged hull's residual value. Indicative ranges — actual depends on age, utilisation, OEM vs independent, and PBH vs T&M contracts. Sources: Aviation Titans, Aircraft Commerce, EASA, eWays (AOG), AviTrader (USM).